What is the outlook in France after the left’s victory over Macron’s coalition?

The left in France experienced a major electoral upset on Sunday, when it was in the lead in the legislative elections, ahead of the Macronist bloc, which relegated the favourite, the far-right Marine Le Pen, to third place.

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But the unexpected political map left by the second round anticipates a hugely divided National Assembly and without clear majorities, the governability of France is entering a very uncertain phase, even more so in a country with no tradition of coalitions or alliances.

With the 577 seats in the Chamber already assigned, the New Popular Front (NFP) of socialists, communists, environmentalists and the more radical La France Insoumise (LFI) came in first place with 182 seats, plus another 13 independent left-wing seats, according to official data from the Ministry of the Interior.

The Macronist bloc, made up of three parties, lost its majority, remaining at 168 deputies, with a noticeable drop compared to the 250 he had, but much less pronounced than the first lap predicted.

And third place went to the far-right National Rally (RN), which was the big favourite after its victory in the first round and the forecasts of the polls published up to Friday, but which finally remained at 143 seats.

Despite this strong disappointment, the RN achieved a historic result, well above the 89 deputies in 2022, which already represented an exceptional jump from the 8 they had in 2017.

The conservative Les Républicains (LR) is holding on to its position despite some defections to the RN and has won 45 seats, to which it could add another 15 right-wing independents.

With a very high turnout of around 67%, the highest in several decades, many French people appear to have mobilised to stop the far right from coming to power following its victory in the first round on 30 June.

The absolute majority is 289, a figure that can only be achieved with agreements that are currently seen as unlikely given the veto of the Macronists and the conservatives to LFI, which will have more than 80 deputies within the umbrella of the NFP.

The unexpected turnaround that the projections represented, followed by the results that arrived in dribs and drabs, He was greeted with an explosion of joy in the symbolic Republic Square by thousands of left-wing supporters who had gathered at their usual meeting place.

LFI leader, the volcanic Jean Luc Mélenchon, was quick to demand from the president, Emmanuel Macron, please appoint a prime minister from the left-wing alliance.

Mélenchon said the New Popular Front “must implement its programme and only its programme” and refused to enter into negotiations with Macron’s coalition.

More cautious was the former socialist president François Hollande, who was elected deputy after returning to active politics in these elections, and who acknowledged that, Without an absolute majority, the left must show “responsibility” to implement his program and pacify the country after the fracture of the campaign.

In the presidential camp, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced that tomorrow will submit his resignation to Macron, but was open to leading a provisional government due to the “unprecedented political situation” since In less than three weeks, France will open the Paris Olympic Games.

Sources at the Elysée Palace have said that Macron, who is travelling to Washington on Monday to take part in the NATO summit, will take his time until the new National Assembly is established “to take the necessary decisions”, that is to say to decide on the government that may be formed.

And they added that Macron, when he has to decide, as “As guarantor of the institutions, he will ensure that the sovereign decision of the French is respected.”

The mood was very different on election night for the RN, where its president and prime ministerial hopeful, Jordan Bardella, grimly denounced the “unnatural alliances” that, in the form of candidates from other parties withdrawing from the second round, have harmed his party.

The party’s leader, Marine Le Pen, did not speak to the militants but in some interviews she said that today’s victory was “a delayed victory” since the progress of her party lays the foundations for a triumph that she sees as inevitable.

“The tide has risen, not enough this time, but it is still rising. It has been a victory in the making,” he said.

The results came after the RN He easily won the first round on June 30, with 33.3% of the votes. and was the unanimous favorite for the second round, although without an absolute majority, in all the polls.

“It is the biggest electoral surprise in our history,” said political analyst Alain Duhamel on BFM.

In some cities of the country the demonstrations to celebrate the victory of the left led to clashes with law enforcement, as in Lyon, Rennes, Lille and Nantes, where they had been banned, prompting police interventions to dislodge them with tear gas.

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