Challenges in the Colombia-Venezuela relationship: should a neighboring country be a guarantor in negotiations with the ELN?

A few days before the presidential inauguration in Venezuela, the relations of the neighboring country with Colombia They are of great importance, since they involve economic, social and diplomatic factors.

The government of Gustavo Petro announced that its ambassador in Caracas will attend, for technical reasons, the presidential inauguration ceremony, but adds that it does not recognize the results of the elections, a position that was highlighted by former Foreign Minister Julio Londoño.

(Also read: Edmundo González spoke about the meeting with Biden and the position of the Colombian Government regarding the inauguration).

“The government of Colombia has made an appropriate decision, in the sense of not being present with a special delegate of any category to the continuation of the command of Mr. Maduro. Naturally, the Colombian ambassador is
there, and he will surely be invited to a ceremony,” said the former chancellor for Noticias Caracol.

According to data from the Colombian-Venezuelan Chamber of Commercein 2024 Colombia’s exports to the neighboring country increased by 40%, with a cut to
September, especially impacting the border region.

“It is important that they maintain a trade and investment relations with Venezuelaregardless of the political phenomenon that is occurring there. This means that international relations and diplomacy have to be capable of maintaining dialogue,” said Juan Falkonerth, international analyst.

(Also read: Venezuela breaks relations with Paraguay due to the words of President Santiago Peña).

Through his X account, President Petro insisted that he will seek a political agreement in Venezuela to guarantee the rights and freedoms of its citizens. There are sectors that assure that the relationship with Venezuela represents a risk for Colombia.

“Venezuela represents a challenge for Colombia in terms of security and stability, because the Chavista regime, with Chávez and now with Maduro, has insisted on supporting groups interested in affecting that security and stability,” said Juan Gabriel Gómez, associate professor at the National University.

Different sectors in the country have rejected the Petro government’s position regarding the results of the presidential elections, as well as the
complaints of human rights violations.

Should Venezuela be a guarantor of negotiations with the ELN?

Analysts consulted by Noticias Caracol warn that Venezuela should not continue as a guarantor country in the peace negotiations with the ELN because it is a risk for the process.

“This is a way to validate the illegitimacy of the Maduro government. We must be consciously coherent in international politics and much more so in these peace issues,” said Juan Camilo Restrepo, former chief negotiator of the Government with the ELN.

Venezuela has played the role of guarantor country in this negotiation process, which is currently suspended after the completion of its sixth cycle. Nevertheless, the government trust that
will resume during the first quarter of this year.

“Venezuela has contributed in different aspects, among them, it has hosted the dialogues at some times. The last two meetings that the process had took place in Caracas,” said Iván Cepeda, Government delegate in the dialogues.

Specialists in peace processes warn that the uncertainty in the relationships between the government of Petro and that of Maduro represents a significant risk for negotiations with that guerrilla.

“The political crisis in Venezuela can put the peace process with the ELN at risk, given that Venezuela has been a mediator, but above all, in Venezuela it is estimated that there is a presence of that guerrilla group,” added political analyst Gabriel Cifuentes.

Various governments have tried to negotiate peace with this armed group. Although the current one has made the greatest progress. To date, the members of the dialogue tables themselves recognize that a final agreement will not be reached before the end of Gustavo Petro’s presidential term.