A The investigation by the British scientific journal The Lancet Public Health, published on Wednesday, collects data from 854 European cities and is the first detailed analysis of the health risks arising from extreme temperatures in Europe.
The study highlighted the need to “strengthen policies to limit global warming and protect the most vulnerable regions and members of societies” the effects of the climate.
In recent years, Europe has seen some of its hottest summers, which has also resulted in high death rates, especially among the elderly, and the number of people in these age groups is expected to increase over time, according to the study.
With global warming of 3°C – based on current climate policies – the number of deaths related to extreme temperatures, cold and heat, which according to the study currently cause 407,538 deaths annually in Europe, will increase by 13.5% this century, mainly among people over 85.
Currently, eight times more people die from cold than from heat in Europe, but the proportion of deaths caused by cold and heat “will change dramatically during this century, with an increase in deaths attributed to high temperatures in all parts of Europe”stressed Juan Carlos Ciscar, researcher at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), in a statement.
Heat-related deaths could increase from the current 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century.
Conversely, in the same scenario, deaths attributed to the cold could be slightly reduced: from 363,809 today to 333,703 in 2100.
Southern European regions such as Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece will be hit hardestwith a significant increase in heat-related mortality rates.
Em Portugalfor example, the study projects, in the scenario of global warming of 3°C, an increase in heat deaths from 1,008 to 2,284 per 100,000 people by 2100 and a decrease in deaths due to the cold, from 7,345 to 4,682.
In contrast, countries such as Norway and Sweden may see an increase in cold deaths due to their growing elderly populations, despite overall declines in other regions.
“There is a critical need to develop more specific policies to protect these areas and members of society most vulnerable to extreme temperatures,” said JRC researcher David GarcÃa-León.
Despite these alarming projections, the study authors acknowledge limitations, such as the possible overestimation of deaths because the data are based on urban areas, where temperatures are often more extreme than in rural areas, and the results do not take into account gender, ethnicity or the effects on infants, who are also vulnerable to extreme temperatures.
Read Also: Madeira remains under yellow heat warning until 6pm on Thursday
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Source: https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/2619021/mortes-pelo-calor-vao-triplicar-na-europa-ate-2100-e-portugal-e-afetado
