Venezuela: what is Edmundo González looking for with a visit to Javier Milei in Argentina days before the inauguration?

The opponent Edmundo González Urrutiawho claims electoral victory in 2024 against Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, arrives in Argentina this Friday to meet this Saturday with President Javier Milei, at the beginning of a “Latin American tour” before the Venezuelan presidential inauguration on January 10.

González’s visit to Argentina comes at a time when Venezuelan authorities are offering a reward of $100,000 for information leading to his capture and in the midst of an escalation of tension between both countries due to the arrest in Venezuela of a gendarme. Argentinean. In this context, the big question is what the opposition leader is looking for with that visit and, in that sense, why Milei decided to agree to that meeting.
Also read: Venezuelan opposition says that Edmundo González will consolidate commitment in the face of “taking possession”

What is known about the visit to Argentina and what is González looking for?

González went into exile in Spain in September last year and has repeatedly promised to return to his country to “take office” on January 10 in place of Maduro.

The opponent plans to arrive in Buenos Aires this Friday, as confirmed to the AFP agency by a Presidency source and confirmed by the candidate on the X network. “Our tour of Latin America begins. First stop: Argentina,” González Urrutia wrote this Thursday. There he must meet with Milei on Saturday morning at the Casa Rosada (seat of government) and called on the Venezuelan community in Argentina to gather in the central Plaza de Mayo.

After his meeting with Milei, González Urrutia will travel to Montevideo to meet with the Uruguayan president, Luis Lacalle Pou, and the chancellor, Omar Paganini. The meeting is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at the Executive Tower (headquarters of the Presidency), government sources confirmed, and will be a “sign of support” for the claims of the Venezuelan opponent about the electoral results in his country.

Also read: “He has to return home safely”: wife of Argentine gendarme detained in Venezuela

According to Manuela Jiménez, associate analyst at Control Risks, “Milei has cultivated a good relationship with González, being one of the first presidents to recognize him as the legitimate winner of the July 28 elections. The Argentine president accused the Maduro regime, especially to Diosdado Cabello, today Minister of Interior Relations, Justice and Peace, of having carried out a massive fraud, which consolidated his firm position at the international level.

The analyst explains that González’s decision to begin his tour of Latin America in Argentina “is very significant.” “Not only because the country is governed by a right-wing president, but also because of the important role that the Argentine embassy in Caracas has had, which has granted asylum to several figures from Maduro’s opposition, such as Claudia Macero, Pedro Urruchurtu, Magallí Meda, Humberto Villalobos, Omar González and Fernando Martínez Mottola”.

In that sense, he adds, “with his visit, González seeks to mobilize Venezuelans living in Argentina, strengthen alliances with leaders who have already supported him and seek to obtain greater international recognition, highlighting that a globally recognized president like Milei “has validated him as the legitimate president. In addition, it is likely that he will also seek the support of other allies of Argentina.”

What is Milei looking for and why did González opt for Argentina and Uruguay?

On the other hand, Jiménez explains that, “for Milei, receiving González is a strategic opportunity to position himself as a defender of democracy and human rights.” It should be noted that this visit will also take place the same week in which the Argentine Foreign Ministry announced that it had denounced Venezuela before the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the “arbitrary detention and forced disappearance” of the Argentine gendarme Nahuel Gallo, 33 years old, arrested on December 8 and accused of “terrorism” by the Venezuelan prosecutor’s office.

Also read: Edmundo González travels to Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei

The Foreign Ministry also requested precautionary measures in favor of Gallo before the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), in an action that the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Yván Gil, described the complaint before the ICC as a “painful spectacle.”

The Control Risks associate analyst explains, however, that while “receiving González will not directly affect Argentina’s claim at the ICC, it does contribute to increasing international pressure on the Maduro regime.”

“For González, this meeting just after Milei’s complaint to the ICC is also timely, since he has strongly rejected the arbitrary detentions and torture of citizens and tourists at the hands of the Maduro regime,” adds Jiménez.

The other question is why the anti-Chavista leader decides to visit Uruguay and Argentina and not other countries in the region. In this regard, the analyst explains that these are “efforts to build a support network among right-wing governments in the region.” And this is the reason why, for example, he will not visit Brazil, even though President Lula da Silva’s administration has criticized the lack of transparency in Venezuela’s elections, since Lula is considered an ally of Maduro – despite of the discrepancies since the elections – and would not receive González in an official meeting.

What is expected to happen in Venezuela on January 10?

Maduro’s questioned proclamation sparked protests that left 28 dead and some 200 injured, in addition to 2,400 detained. Three of those arrested died in prison and nearly 1,400 have been released on parole. Maduro – for whom the opposition’s allegations of fraud are part of a “coup d’état” plan – is preparing to be sworn in for a new term with the support of the Armed Forces, whose high command has declared “absolute loyalty” to him.

Also read: Maduro regime offers $100,000 reward for Edmundo González

On his side, along with González Urrutia, the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado On Tuesday, he secretly called for protests with a view to the inauguration, although without specifying details of the call. It should be remembered that the opposition published on a website copies of electoral records with which it claims the victory of González Urrutia, while the government denies the validity of those documents.

JUAN BARRETO/AFP

In that sense, what Venezuela will face the week of the presidential inauguration raises all kinds of questions. Analysts note that the opposition is expected to increase protests both nationally and internationally, seeking to pressure Maduro to leave power and the international community to recognize González as the legitimate president of Venezuela.

“However, Maduro is likely to remain in power that day, backed by the continued support of key institutions such as the Supreme Court of Justice, the National Electoral Council and military forces,” says Manuela Jiménez, associate analyst at Control Risks, who adds that “González, with the support of Machado, will try to take office as president, but, without the support of these institutions or relevant diplomatic recognition at the international level, it is unlikely that he will be accepted as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, both in the field internal as well as international”.

The reward for the capture of Gonzálezhe adds, “significantly increases the risk of his arrest, especially taking into account his statements that he will be in Venezuela for the presidential inauguration.” But, like Jiménez, analysts see it as unlikely that the opposition leader will, in fact, be detained.

Also read: Argentina denounced Venezuela before the International Criminal Court for arresting a gendarme

“An eventual capture of González would provoke strong repercussions from the international community against Maduro and his allies. Countries such as the United States would probably respond by intensifying sanctions against figures close to the regime, as well as against the Venezuelan oil sector, which has been fundamental in maintaining Maduro. in power for years,” he says.

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In any case, according to the Venezuelan Constitution, the winner of the presidential elections must go on January 10 to the headquarters of the National Assembly (AN, Parliament), today controlled by Chavismo, to be sworn in as head of state. Now it remains to be seen, who and under what circumstances will do it.