Will Edmundo González be able to return to Venezuela to take office as president?

He January 10 it is expected that Nicolas Maduro takes office for a third term in Venezuela, amid the international controversy caused by the questioned elections of July 28, 2024. The opponent Edmundo Gonzalezvirtual winner of those elections, has expressed his intention to be in the neighboring country on that date in order to take office. Will it be able to fulfill its purpose? Ronal Rodríguez, spokesperson for the Venezuela Observatory of the Universidad del Rosario, analyzed the issue in Noticias Caracol.

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At this time there is little chance that it will be able to enter Venezuelan territory. Let us remember that Venezuela has borders with different countries, but its only real living land border is the border with Colombia, and Colombia would not lend itself to the arrival of Edmundo González to Venezuela. There are other borders. In fact, Venezuela has maritime borders with the United States, with Puerto Rico, or with the Netherlands, with Aruba and Curacao, with France, with Guadeloupe. But the reality is that the only border through which it could eventually enter would be through Colombian territory and Colombia would not lend itself, basically because that would mean a very tense situation between the two countries. We have already experienced similar scenarios in the past and particularly it must also be said, the Venezuelan regime in the border area, in the state Tachirais preparing the Freddy Bernal, governor, one of the most violent actors and who has a connection with criminal actors to respond to a situation involving Edmundo González Urrutia. So the situation is quite complex. Unfortunately, a transition is not expected in Venezuela and it is very difficult for Edmundo González Urrutia to reach Venezuelan territory in the coming days.

Let us remember that Venezuela has been a dictatorship since May 1, 2017, when the National Constituent Assembly was created and the power of the National Assembly, of the Venezuelan Congress, at that time in the hands of the opposition, was unknown. In 2018, President Juan Manuel Santos did not recognize the results of that election because he considered it non-competitive. In 2019, President Iván Duque did not recognize the inauguration of Nicolás Maduro. What happened in 2022 is that given the circumstances we had, the interdependence that exists between the two countries, the president Gustavo Petro He established relations with the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro. But with that, diplomatic, consular, and commercial relations were recovered, and normalization in the border area was particularly sought. Two years have passed since that and at this moment what is happening is a continuation of the dictatorship of Nicolas Maduro and what the Colombian Government has done is send or delegate the ambassador to attend the inauguration, basically to try to maintain levels of dialogue with the regime. Very surely, if the ambassador does not attend, the Venezuelan regime will once again resort to its strategy of self-isolation and break relations as it did in 2019, when it expelled our entire diplomatic corps, including the consular from Venezuelan territory, and left our citizens helpless in Venezuelan territory, into the hands of the dictatorship, and to Venezuelans in Colombian territory who could not access consular services. It is important to maintain relations, it is important to maintain normality in the border area, especially to be able to provide support to our compatriots, who would remain under the dynamics of the dictatorship. And it is important that Colombia maintains commercial and consular relations. Obviously, that should not mean validation. And that is the difficult thing about diplomacy. The Colombian State must maintain a relationship without ending up becoming a useful fool or being instrumentalized by the Venezuelan regime to say that it is a legitimate regime.

(Also read: Petro says he will seek a political agreement in Venezuela to guarantee citizens’ rights)

Venezuela is a country that is in a complex and prolonged humanitarian emergency. Let us remember that since the rise of the Bolivarian revolution, but particularly since 2014, the country has been in a significant economic decline that has meant the departure of a quarter of the population and that has been exacerbated by the international sanctions that were imposed after 2019. Venezuela continues to be a country with many difficulties and particularly the population of the border area crosses the border to come to Colombian territory to access goods and services, particularly in terms of education and health. Even trade between Colombia and Venezuela, which continues to grow, is essential for Venezuela to have access to goods and services, which are not available due to the dynamics of sanctions and the fall of the productive sector in Venezuela.

Without a doubt, the opposition has been doing very important work and we cannot diminish the victory of July 28. The opposition He managed to take away the electoral argument. Chavismo had always said that it had come to power through the polls, since the opposition managed to demonstrate and with the publication of the minutes, that power should really be in their hands, that they are the ones who have popular support. Unfortunately, at this moment the opposition does not have the possibility of exercising that power because the regime has decided to maintain the exercise of Government through force and the systematic violation of human rights.

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