Large earthquakes can give detectable signs months in advance

O article, published by the journal Nature Communications, analyzes the 7.8 magnitude earthquake registered last February in Turkey and Syria, which caused thousands of deaths, and indicates that there were signs that began around eight months earlier.

These results add to the accumulated evidence that “at least some large earthquakes present a preparation phase that can be monitored and that has some similarity with theoretical and laboratory models of the failure process”, the authors maintain.

The team led by the University of Potsdam in Germany found that earthquake-affected areas in Turkey and Syria saw an acceleration in the rates of seismic events and an increase in energy release from about eight months earlier, organized into clusters. within a radius of 65 kilometers from the epicenter.

Although the main rupture occurred on a fault and in a region previously identified as having very high seismic risk potential, preparatory signals occurred both in that area and on a secondary fault, which had previously received little attention.

Some large earthquakes may have a monitorable preparation phase, but due to the large number of variables involved, “with the current state of knowledge, medium-term seismic warning — if possible — remains in the future of seismology”, the scientists stressed. in the study.

The results highlight the challenges posed by detecting the preparatory phase and epicenter of large earthquakes, suggesting that a complete understanding of preparatory phenomena would be necessary to develop future warning systems.

More comprehensive earthquake monitoring, together with long-term seismic records, could improve the ability to recognize earthquake preparation processes from other signals of regional deformation.

The authors suggest that the development of seismic warning systems would require more local and regional detection networks, as well as monitoring of secondary faults, which accompany the main rupture faults.

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