DDue to this climate phenomenon, several regions of the world, such as Benguela Bay, in Angola, the Philippines and the Caribbean Sea, will probably have record average air temperatures until June, according to the study published in the scientific journal Scientific Reports.

By definition, according to the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), El Niño is the anomalous warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, predominantly in its equatorial belt, affecting the global climate and the general circulation of the atmosphere.

El Niño occurs at average intervals of four years and persists for six months to 1.3 years. The most recent of these phenomena emerged in mid-2023.

The global mean surface temperature (mean temperature on the Earth’s surface) is obtained by calculating the average of the temperatures of the sea (sea surface temperature) and land (surface air temperature).

In the study released today, scientists modeled the effects of El Niño from July 2023 to June 2024 on the regional variation in average air temperatures between 1951 and 1980.

The models included the typical peak of the phenomenon, which occurs between November and January.

The researchers concluded that under a moderate El Niño scenario, Benguela Bay and the Philippines would see record average air temperatures through June.

Record values ​​would also be reached in the same period in the areas of the Caribbean Sea, the South China Sea, the Amazon, in Brazil, and Alaska, in the United States, in a strong El Niño scenario.

In a moderate El Niño scenario, scientists estimated for 2023-2024 a global average surface temperature of 1.03ºC to 1.10ºC above the value of the reference period (1951-1980).

For a strong El Niño scenario, the global average surface temperature would be 1.06ºC to 1.20ºC higher than the 1951-1980 value, according to the study.

A slight increase in global average surface temperature has been strongly associated with significant rises in surface air temperatures during extreme regional warming events, according to scientists.

In the study published today, the authors warn that high air temperatures could lead to a significant increase in the likelihood of extreme weather events, including forest fires, tropical cyclones and heat waves, particularly in oceanic and coastal areas, “where the greatest thermal capacity of the oceans causes climate conditions to persist for long periods of time.”

In January, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that 2024 could break the heat record set in 2023 due to El Niño.

According to the UN agency, the global warming trend driven by El Niño, which led to air temperatures breaking records in 2023 every month between June and December, is expected to continue in 2024.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that, “since El Niño typically has the biggest impact on global temperatures after its peak, 2024 could be even hotter.”

Scientists from the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Observing Agency (NOAA) estimate that there is a one in three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023 and a 99% chance that 2024 will be ranked among the top five warmest years. as long as there are records.

Portugal recorded its first heat wave of 2024 in January, considered by IPMA to be the most significant for this month since 1941.

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Source: https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/2511862/ha-90-de-probabilidade-de-recorde-de-temperatura-media-global-ate-junho

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