What is the motivation that the Islamic State would have to attack Russia at this time? This is the question that arises after the massacre in Moscow that already leaves 133 dead, although the number of victims could increase.

María Teresa Aya, international analyst for Noticias Caracol, points out that The Islamic State “has three reasons for attacking Russia right now. The first, Russia is an ally of the Syrian regimeSyria is a declared enemy of the Islamic State, a common enemy. Two, Russia in recent months has moved closer to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan; The Taliban are also considered an enemy by the Islamic State, are not radical enough, they say. Thus, there is a common enemy in Russia against the Islamic State. AND Three, perhaps most importantly, the Islamic State has several times accused Russia of having Muslim blood on its hands for the oppression of Muslims in that country.”

Is the conflict in Russia going to escalate further?

“It is possible that this attack will generate an increase in nationalism in Russia, the solidarity of all Russians in the face of the attack. This could help Putin, for example, to have a tougher hand in the face of the war in Ukraine, but it could also help him seek an alliance with the Taliban on the border with Afghanistan against ISIS and would increase violence in the region. Afghan area two years after the arrival of the Taliban and an area that has not been pacified,” said the expert.

He added that there is also “the Eurasia region: countries like Tajikistan, where ISIS also operates, there may be increased repression by Russian forces in the region. That is to say, yes we are likely to see regional destabilization at this time”.

Did Russian intelligence fail?

María Teresa Aya emphasizes that “this is not the first time that ISIS threatens Russia, it had already planted a bomb, for example, in its embassy in Afghanistan in September 2022, and had announced several attacks in Russia. It’s more, The United States, American intelligence, announced to the Russians a very close ISIS attack this month and prohibited its people in Russia from going to large events. Putin said this was an attempt by the United States to scare them, for destabilizing the country and did not take it seriously. What happened? I think that They were looking a lot at the issue of Ukraine, they have all their resources directed towards the border with Ukraine and they did not want to believe the United States. They are really focused on their war with Ukraine and dismissed any other threats to Russia. It wasn’t important to them at the time. That was a very serious mistake that resulted in the loss of lives. of more than one hundred and thirty people.”

Source: https://www.noticiascaracol.com/mundo/por-que-el-estado-islamico-perpetro-una-masacre-en-rusia-analisis-rg10

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