Cities that are going to sink: this is the exact date for it to happen, according to study

The sinking of large cities, known as subsidence, is a complex phenomenon that can be caused by a combination of natural and human factors. Over time, geological materials such as sediments and soils can become naturally compacted, causing a gradual subsidence of the terrain and, in areas where rivers have deposited large amounts of sediment over thousands of years, These can settle, compact and cause ground subsidence.

One of the main causes of urban subsidence is the excessive extraction of groundwater. When water is extracted from an aquifer faster than it can be recharged naturally, soil that was saturated with water begins to compact, which causes the subsidence of the land.

Oil and gas extraction can also contribute to subsidence. In areas where these resources are extracted from underground, the ground can become compacted as large volumes of material are removed. and, the weight of buildings and urban infrastructure can put pressure on the ground, especially in areas where the ground is soft or composed of sediment.

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Cities that are going to sink

Cities that represent the pulse of the global economy, culture and technology are watching sea levels rise while their lands slowly sink. This process has catastrophic implications for both urban infrastructure and human lives. Although the phenomenon is not new, the speed with which it advances and its consequences are increasingly evident.

The world’s great cities are not only home to millions of people, but are vital engines for the global economy. However, they are being affected by a silent crisis that, although less visible than natural disasters, promises to have much deeper and lasting consequences. These are the cities that are at risk of sinking, according to National Geographic and the magazine Nature.

• New York, United States.
• Tokyo, Japan.
• Manila, Philippines.
• Mexico City, Mexico.
• Venice, Italy.
• Jakarta, Indonesia.
• Mumbai, India.
• Bangkok, Thailand.
• Dhaka, Bangladesh.
• Houston, United States.
• Lagos, Nigeria.
• Miami, United States.
• New Orleans, United States.
• Virginia Beach, United States.
• Rotterdam, Netherlands.
• Beijing, China.
• Tianjin, China
• Shanghai, China
• Xi’an, China
• Fuzhou and Hefei, China

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Although this phenomenon is not the same in all cities, the causes are mostly common: excessive extraction of groundwater, climate change and, in some cases, natural geological processes. While some cities are seeing their land decline at an alarming rate, others, like New York, are experiencing slower but equally worrying subsidence due to geological factors dating back to the last ice age.

Manila is an alarming case

In Manila, the situation is especially serious. Between 2014 and 2020, some areas of the city have recorded subsidence of up to 10.6 centimeters per year, which is 24 times faster than average sea level rise. This phenomenon began to be noticed in the 1990s, when tide gauges began to detect water levels that could not be explained by climate change alone.

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Over the past few decades, the situation has worsened, and today, many areas of Manila are practically submerged underwater during high tides. In some areas, residents are forced to use boats to get around their neighborhoods.

The problem in Manila is not isolated. In cities like Jakarta and Mumbai, subsidence has become a serious threat. In fact, it is estimated that more than half of China’s major cities are also experiencing subsidence at alarming rates. due to the extraction of groundwater, which has weakened the terrain and caused a gradual collapse of the soil.

Mexico City on the list

Mexico City, for example, sinks approximately 50 centimeters a year due to the intensive extraction of water from underground aquifers. Research from Advancing Earth and Space Science, indicate that this phenomenon has been occurring for more than a century, and the situation has worsened over the years. Despite efforts to curb water extraction and adopt more sustainable practices, the damage has already been done in many areas, and subsidence has become unstoppable in certain parts of the city.

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Exact date of sinking of these cities

Cities such as Miami, New Orleans, Houston and Lagos are also at risk. According to studies by the World Economic Forum, if sea levels continue to rise at their current rate, some of these cities could disappear completely by the end of the 21st century. It is estimated that by the year 2100, sea level could have risen up to two meters, which would endanger millions of people living in coastal areas.
However, they also point out that in the coming decades, subsidence and the effects of sea level rise They could make certain areas of these cities uninhabitable or gradually submerge.

Jakarta and Tokyo are fighting against sinking

Although the problem is serious, there are examples of how cities can mitigate the effects of subsidence. Jakarta, Indonesia, has implemented a series of strict policies to control groundwater pumping, which has significantly reduced subsidence rates in recent decades. By 2020, subsidence rates in the city had decreased from 25 centimeters annually to just 3 centimeters, thanks to measures such as improving water supply infrastructure and regulating groundwater extraction.

Tokyo has also taken effective measures to reduce subsidence, implementing policies to better manage water resources and control water consumption in industrial and urban areas. Through more sustainable management of aquifers, these cities have shown that, with the right political will, it is possible to slow the process of subsidence and mitigate long-term risks.